Ida Saturday

Saturday morning on the levee

After a very rainy night I awoke to much nicer weather this morning, and although I didn't even consider the Giro Ride on the still-wet streets, but mid-morning the road was dry and the sun was out and I figured I could use a little mental health ride. I hadn't been on the levee very long when I ran into Mignon who was on her mountain bike and doing the same, so we did a nice long easy conversational ride out to the Big Dip and back. There was a steady east wind, but it wasn't strong at all, and the temperature felt considerably cooler than usual. Along the way there must have been seven or eight weather alerts and text messages that popped up on my Garmin. One was a summary of Tulane's weather service's update that read:

Currently a Cat. 1 w/85 mph sustained winds. 475 miles SSE of New Orleans moving northwest at 16 mph and will continue that track through landfall. Expect gradual increase in intensity today with some rapid intensification overnight and tomorrow.  Expected to make landfall as a Cat. 4.  Expected to make landfall directly over Morgan City and then turn north toward Baton Rouge.  Both Accuweather and NHC do not expect sustained hurricane force winds in New Orleans. Currently HF winds 50 miles from the center.  We expect TS force winds sustained at 50-55 arriving after 3 pm and lasting until about 1-2 am with slow improvement on Monday.  TS gusts should begin around 1 pm. Still predicting 6-8 inches of rain.  3 pm-3 am worst rainfall, worse to our west.  Storm surge LP 4-6 feet, outside the levee system, MS river delta, 6-12 feet.  It could wiggle to the east about 10 miles which would increase rain prediction to 10 inches.

So I guess I'll take that as good news under the circumstances, but as we all know, these things can change unexpectedly. We will be staying here at home, hoping for the best. Lots of people have evacuated already and the interstate was a parking lot this morning and probably still is. I'll be happy if we make to Monday afternoon without a tree coming through the roof or a window. I'm sure we'll lose power at some point Sunday night or Monday morning, but at least we know the drill.